Bihar and Beyond

Now that the Bihar election is done and dusted and endless commentaries have been written on why the BJP failed and how the rag tag Mahagathbandhan (MGB) decimated the the mighty BJP it is time to look ahead. There is a section of people who dismiss the MGB win as a clever caste grouping that managed to create a synergy between the Nitish and Lalu caste base. This would be a dangerous oversimplification in my view as the Bihar win has wider implications on how political equations will play out in the near future.

Firstly, how will the BJP react to this defeat. There are several factors that point to what the reaction will be:

1. Why did they not see it coming? It implies that the political machinery did not have its ear close to the ground or that lower level functionaries  were too scared to provide unbiased feedback. Local BJP party workers are clearly considered inferior to the centre. There is a trust deficit and also an implied contempt for their intellectual caliber. 
2. Who formulated the BJP strategy? The general view is that it was Amit Shah and that the strategy was endorsed by the PM.
3. Is religious polarisation part of the BJP central strategy or is it forced upon them by the RSS or the so called 'fringe' groups? This is an important question because religious polarisation takes away from the development plank of the Modi administration. If it still finds a place in their approach the agenda is clearly being driven by powerful forces.

In view of the three points above my considered opinion is that the BJP will not backtrack from its current political approach. They will continue to follow a centrally driven agenda that will start with development as its central focus but will inevitably degenerate into name calling and religious divisiveness. They are also unwilling or unable to develop strong regional leaders and will thus find themselves at a disadvantage in all the important states that are coming up for election. They will also find the going difficult in parliament as a rejuvenated opposition will be baying for their blood.

Bihar will also have its fair share of turbulence. Lalu is too canny a politician not to demand his pound of flesh. This will probably result in his son getting an important post in the Government (maybe Deputy CM) and he will continue to interfere with Nitish in state affairs. Whether this will reach the level of Azam Khan/Akhilesh has to be seen. Clearly Nitish has larger ambitions - even if he does not the role may be thrust upon him.

The vacuum created by the demise of the Congress is yet to be filled. In any mature democracy the two principal parties are generally perceived as left of centre and right of centre. The latter position is clearly occupied by the BJP. If a worthwhile coalition of secular parties with a socialist bent could come about with Nitish as the head it would be a 'consummation devoutly to be wished'. Earlier I had hoped that Kejriwal could be a contender for that role but the BJP has successfully entangled him in a political imbroglio with Najeeb Jung. However, I would not write him off as yet. I get the feeling that the Aam Aadmi in Delhi is fairly happy with the AAP Government. Secondly, the AAP is growing in strength in Punjab and may yet pull off a coup of sorts. India seems to have developed a taste for decisive elections and Punjab may yet surprise us.

So there you have it. The BJP is on a sticky wicket and it does not appear that they have the drive and vision to extricate themselves. Left of centre groupings are beginning to emerge and there could be some interesting developments with either Nitish or Kejriwal as the focus.

I had said in an earlier blog that India has a habit of discouraging extreme positions. The Bihar elections is clearly a pointer in that direction.