AAP - What Next?

The recent bye elections for the Delhi MCD have thrown up some interesting results. There was a section of AAP supporters including me who felt that the AAP would sweep the polls i.e. they would land up with 8 - 10 seats. This has not happened. What are the implications of this and what does it mean for the AAP going forward?

1. The BJP has not learnt from its debacle in the assembly elections. There is no clear leader even today for Delhi and the same tired voices continue to prevail. The new crop as typified by Nupur Sharma or Shazia Ilmi are frankly not worthy of consideration. This lacunae will cost the BJP dearly going forward and they need to correct it immediately. The larger question whether BJP policies at a national level are being rejected by the electorate in general is not so germane to this election.
2. The most surprising and praiseworthy result is from the Congress. Their understated leader, Ajay Maken, has obviously been doing good work in Delhi and his efforts are being appreciated.  The voter does recognize sincerity and here is a clear example of what works. 

Coming now to the AAP. The assembly election saw a huge swing away from the Congress. The BJP actually lost very little of its vote share and the entire swing went to the AAP. This resulted in a massive landslide in their favour. Clearly the swing was of a temporary nature and now all parties have to fight for their rightful share of the votes. The BJP's power base appears to have dwindled slightly but they are still a formidable force at the MCD level. If they can get their leadership and cadre in order they will present a major challenge in 2017 when the full elections come up. The Congress is clawing its way back. At a national level they are hamstrung by a weak central leadership but clearly the need for a left of center, secular party is showing up in several ways in many states. In my opinion the AAP has made three errors of judgement in the recent past that have contributed to its below expectation showing in the bye elections:

1. There was a shrewd campaign to cast aspersions on Modi especially on his degree issue. It is important to realise that such a campaign is only a tactical one as it positions Kejriwal in a false position of equivalence to Modi. It muddies the waters and keeps the pot boiling. However it actually achieves nothing since nobody really cares whether Modi is a graduate or not. The problem with the AAP is that they do not know when to stop. Such a campaign starts grating on your ears after some time. Rather like the Airtel 4G ad which the company cleverly converted to an advantage.
2. The first round of odd-even created significant awareness about the whole issue of air pollution and there was a lot of good will created amongst all sections of the public including doubters like Suhel Seth and Tavleen Singh. Unfortunately the second round has not had a similarly positive impact. The effect of road rationing on air pollution was anyway doubtful and this time the public was just a little fed up. Clearly the war on pollution needs to progress to other areas.
3. The assembly elections were fought by the AAP in enormous detail with agendas and action plans for each constituency. I get the feeling that this time around the effort may have slackened a bit both in terms of detailing of plans and the choice of candidates. 

In all of the above examples there appears to be a lack of strategic thinking in the AAP. They are good at tactics but now that they are in power they need to have a longer term view. They are doing excellent work on the ground. In the key areas of power, water and health care there has been a distinct improvement in Delhi. Not all the credit can be given to them but they have played a significant part in managing things at a ground level.

Going forward the AAP needs to consolidate its governance in Delhi. High decibel advertising as discussed above is not a substitute for solid work. They need to focus back on the basics (Health Care, Women's Safety, Power, Water, Pollution) and Kejriwal needs to operate as a hard taskmaster to his party men. Secondly since they have decided to go for assembly polls in Punjab, they must win this if they are to demonstrate that they can govern a larger and more crucial state than Delhi. There are rumours already that Anandiben Patel is being shifted to Punjab as Governor in anticipation of an AAP win. This looks like Ajeeb Jung II in the making and the AAP needs to be ready for it.