A Malthusian Twist in the Pandemic's Tale

"The increase of population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence"

When Malthus wrote these words in the late 18th Century, he was at odds with the general view that "society was improving and in principle perfectible" - Wikipedia. The onset of the Industrial revolution fueled by monies extracted from the colonies led to a feeling of invincibility and perpetual growth during the Victorian era in Europe, which at that time was clearly the heart of the world with Britain at its core. Two world wars, several recessions, famines and earlier pandemics were not able to puncture the boundless optimism first sparked off by Vasco Da Gama in 1498 when he knocked on India's gate and laid the foundation for the Western World's wealth.

The point being made is, of course, about 'endless growth and development' and eventually thus the possibility of perfection. Many people have questioned the possibility of such an eventuality but few have questioned either its desirability or even whether human beings actually want it.

Related questions about science, ingenuity and whether these and other enablers have their limits too will come up when we examine these areas. It is not quite what Malthus intended to say but the import is similar. If anything, the advances in science are best exemplified by the 'warp speed' at which vaccines for Covid 19 have been developed. This should have been a good augury for the future - signifying a positive, forward looking, optimistic approach with a firm belief in science and technology at the heart of it. Almost Victorian as it were.

And yet an ominous lassitude seems to have come over us. In a curious, Malthusian twist, birth rates are plummeting around the world. The Western world and countries like Japan were facing this problem anyway but now the contagion has spread. Even countries like India are almost at replacement birth rate and the trend is accelerating rapidly. The pandemic has brought the fear of the future to our doorsteps. An uncertainty has us in its grip. You need to be optimistic about the future to procreate. Assuming that the pandemic will eventually recede, it may leave an exhausted, jaded world in its wake.

That would be the Malthusian Twist in the Pandemic's Tale.  

I wrote this article in 2021 but did not publish it at that time. As it turns out, it was oddly prescient in predicting the steep decline in birth rates. Global instability and the outbreak of several wars have only added to the sense of insecurity even after the pandemic has retreated. 

Ref: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-population-shrinking.html