Covid 19 Projections for India

Based on my earlier blog, I had developed a projection for Covid 19 progress in India. There have been four presentations so far on 24.05.20 with updates on 8.06.20 21.06.20 and 6.07.20

Links to the slides are given below. I would welcome your views.

https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-240520

https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-1-80620

https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-2-210620

The latest update was presented on 6.07.20. Key Highlights were:

Directions

• The last two weeks have seen  a general flattening of the death curve. The worst affected state, Maharashtra, continues to adjust previous period deaths leading to some softness in the figures. Hopefully, we will not see another anomaly.

• The return of migrant workers to their home states have still not led to a spurt in deaths in UP and Bihar though the trends are going up.

• Increased testing is leading to a larger discovery of cases. However as discussed earlier this has little bearing on the progression of the pandemic.

• Based on current trends, we can expect a decline in deaths per day to start around the 15 – 20th of July when the cumulative deaths stand at  22,000 – 23,000. The date is in line with our initial estimates, but the death toll is significantly less. The major risk is that the rural hinterland will see an explosion of cases after some time. This view has been expressed by Dr Ashish Jha of Harvard.

Thank You!

Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com with any comments or questions

The link to the slides is given below:

https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-3-60720

By when will Covid 19 start declining in India?

Like many of us, I have also been keenly following the numbers on the Covid 19 Pandemic. Since we live here, the focus is more on India and what is going to happen. I had developed a model to forecast by when we would start seeing a decline in deaths in India that I shared with family and friends.

Rather reluctantly, on their urging, I am sharing the findings on my blog. Please note that this is strictly an amateur's work. If the predictions don't pan out, well it will be no worse than some of the astrologers who are now running for cover!

Here goes:

1. Here is where I stick my neck out. I have done an international per capita model of cases and deaths and used it to forecast what will happen in India
2. Broadly there are 3 types of countries and progression of Covid 19. Asia including Turkey and Iran where the disease progressed more rapidly and counties like Malaysia and Thailand which have hardly been touched at all.
3. Europe and North America which are broadly similar
4. Brazil is still to stabilize
5. I have taken the dates on which a decline started of cases and deaths for each country and worked out the per capita cases and deaths on that day
6. This analysis results in the conclusion that India is likely to behave like West Asia -  tropical counties of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand will do better than India.
7. Deaths are more reliable than cases as a measure for forecasting as cases are dependent on how much testing is going on
8. Based on the above analysis, my prediction is that India deaths/day will start declining around 1 July to 10 July. The number of deaths in India (based on a 7 day moving average are doubling in 12 days) will reach the projected number of 35,000 - 62,000  after which they should start declining as per the model.
9. The decline will start earlier in places like Ahmedabad, Pune and Mumbai where the spread is already greater. However, as a whole the country will start seeing the decline on the dates stated above.
10. This model assumes that the per capita infections and deaths when they reach a certain level in the population the infection progress recedes. It must be something similar to herd immunity but the pundits are reluctant to use that word
11. The more you ease off from the lockdown, the quicker we will reach the tipping point. The doubling rate will become quicker.

It would be great to hear your reactions on this post.

Regards and stay safe.

We Deserve our Slums

Indians are masters at avoiding uncomfortable truths.

Are we racist? Yes - if only you would stop to hear the racial slurs that we cast on Blacks or even our own people with darker skins. How many dusky little girls have been taunted by the ditty "Kali kaluti, baingan luti. Bhare bazaar mein dham dham kuti." Are we elitist? Yes - in our condominium block in Gurgaon  there was a vigorous debate on whether maids and drivers should be allowed to use passenger lifts - there are only two lifts, one for 'passengers' with the other one being labelled 'service lift' Are we casteist - Social distancing was just made for us. Untouchability still thrives in rural areas, however much we may like to deny it. And finally are we anti Muslim? The biggest elephant in the room today.

This blog post is not intended to recite a litany of the ills that beset Indian society. Rather, I will focus on only one that is perhaps derived from some or all of the above.

Simply put, we are a mean people. We drive past Dharavi in our air conditioned cars and turn up our noses at the whiff of fecal matter that manages to make it past the filtration system. Why doesn't the administration clear these slums for heaven's sake? Why do we pay taxes? The govt just does not do anything!

The uncomfortable truth is really very simple. If we are only willing to pay a plumber Rs 800 per day or even less in the smaller towns, he will earn around Rs 16,000 or so per month. So will a driver or a blue collar worker in a factory. On that, he has to rent a little kholi, commute, eat, provide for clothes and education for his family and hope that he does not fall ill as if he does he is not likely to able to afford decent medical care. Perhaps the family may earn a little more if his wife works in one or more of our households as a maid. Our 'low costs of labour' are like a millstone round our necks. They condemn our working classes to a life of penury amidst filth, disease and no prospects of growth. Can we seriously question why we have slums? They are the places where we condemn those who work for us to live.

We deserve our slums.


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AAP - A Method in their Madness?

The AAP certainly seems to have gone through some kind of metamorphosis. Kejriwal reciting the Hanuman Chalisa, presenting flowers to a smiling PM and generally getting along with the current LG are all signs and symptoms of this change.

The graver charge that some of his supporters levy is that he has compromised on his moral principles. He did not come out in support of Shaheen Bagh, he appeared to be aligned with the BJP on the Delhi riots and generally seems to have discarded his activist credentials along with whatever sense of honour he may have had to start with.

To understand this a little better, one has to examine three issues:

1. All in all, India seems to have shifted smartly to the right. It also seems to have become more overtly religious and attitudes have hardened one way or the other. In these fraught times, I feel that Kejriwal has deftly highlighted his own Hindu identity without compromising on his party's secularism.  It defangs the more vocal right wing and creates a sort of Hindu nationalist space for Kejriwal that allows him some room to operate. The originator of this strategy being Mahatma Gandhi himself. Rahul Gandhi in his own ham fisted way also visited temples but it was evidently hypocritical and actually hurt the Congress. Kejriwal seems to strike the right notes with his innocent Aam Aadmi look complete with school-boyish sweater and trousers, so one may actually believe him.
2. The second issue is about focus. Kejriwal clearly won a resounding mandate in Delhi due to his track record of good governance. Evidently, the Delhi public sees him as an effective CM who delivers on his promises especially for the poorer segments of people. Do they want him to also be an activist who flaunts his beliefs about the CAA and other contentious matters? How does that help the Delhi voter? Not visiting Shaheen Bagh was clearly a good strategy. In fact the more contentious issues that Kejriwal picks up, the greater the possibility of conflict with the Central Government. Is this worth it? I think not. Let him be one of the few CMs who does what he was elected to do rather than fight random battles. 
3. That brings me to my third point about picking the right battles to fight. Kejriwal and his govt have been accused of being conspicuous by their absence during the Delhi riots. It was perfectly clear  that the Delhi police's lackadaisical response initially had nothing to do with Kejriwal. He does not control them and can not influence them either. Equally, the sterling work done by the police afterwards had nothing to do with Kejriwal either. He is a sort of truncated CM. Best to remember that and do what you can at the appropriate time. The decision to allow Kanhaiya Kumar to be prosecuted is similar. Why should Kejriwal put himself in the unenviable position of stalling the prosecution of a potential anti national?Whatever his views may be on the subject and whether Kanhaiya is anti national or not, it's better to let the law take its course and not be seen as an obstructionist. Besides, how does this help with Delhi governance for which Kejriwal has been elected? Aa bail mujhe maar was always a loser's strategy. Fortunately Kejriwal seems to have outgrown this tendency.

Make up your minds, folks! Do you want an effective CM who delivers on his promises or do you want a bleeding heart liberal who gets mocked and tripped up at every turn? I think Rahul Gandhi is stepping firmly into the latter profile. More power to him.

I know that this post will cause many liberal folk to froth at the mouth at Kejriwal's perfidy. The cry of the AAP being a B team of the BJP is floating around in Delhi drawing rooms. But do consider that the ability to adapt to changing circumstances while retaining a sharp focus on your objectives is a desirable quality. As the AAP matures, it is heartening to see that Kejriwal is handling this transition with a deft touch. It augurs well for a possible second foray for AAP into politics outside Delhi. If he sheds some supporters along the way especially from the garrulous middle class fat cats so be it. They were never his core target segment.



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