By when will Covid 19 start declining in India?

Like many of us, I have also been keenly following the numbers on the Covid 19 Pandemic. Since we live here, the focus is more on India and what is going to happen. I had developed a model to forecast by when we would start seeing a decline in deaths in India that I shared with family and friends.

Rather reluctantly, on their urging, I am sharing the findings on my blog. Please note that this is strictly an amateur's work. If the predictions don't pan out, well it will be no worse than some of the astrologers who are now running for cover!

Here goes:

1. Here is where I stick my neck out. I have done an international per capita model of cases and deaths and used it to forecast what will happen in India
2. Broadly there are 3 types of countries and progression of Covid 19. Asia including Turkey and Iran where the disease progressed more rapidly and counties like Malaysia and Thailand which have hardly been touched at all.
3. Europe and North America which are broadly similar
4. Brazil is still to stabilize
5. I have taken the dates on which a decline started of cases and deaths for each country and worked out the per capita cases and deaths on that day
6. This analysis results in the conclusion that India is likely to behave like West Asia -  tropical counties of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand will do better than India.
7. Deaths are more reliable than cases as a measure for forecasting as cases are dependent on how much testing is going on
8. Based on the above analysis, my prediction is that India deaths/day will start declining around 1 July to 10 July. The number of deaths in India (based on a 7 day moving average are doubling in 12 days) will reach the projected number of 35,000 - 62,000  after which they should start declining as per the model.
9. The decline will start earlier in places like Ahmedabad, Pune and Mumbai where the spread is already greater. However, as a whole the country will start seeing the decline on the dates stated above.
10. This model assumes that the per capita infections and deaths when they reach a certain level in the population the infection progress recedes. It must be something similar to herd immunity but the pundits are reluctant to use that word
11. The more you ease off from the lockdown, the quicker we will reach the tipping point. The doubling rate will become quicker.

It would be great to hear your reactions on this post.

Regards and stay safe.

We Deserve our Slums

Indians are masters at avoiding uncomfortable truths.

Are we racist? Yes - if only you would stop to hear the racial slurs that we cast on Blacks or even our own people with darker skins. How many dusky little girls have been taunted by the ditty "Kali kaluti, baingan luti. Bhare bazaar mein dham dham kuti." Are we elitist? Yes - in our condominium block in Gurgaon  there was a vigorous debate on whether maids and drivers should be allowed to use passenger lifts - there are only two lifts, one for 'passengers' with the other one being labelled 'service lift' Are we casteist - Social distancing was just made for us. Untouchability still thrives in rural areas, however much we may like to deny it. And finally are we anti Muslim? The biggest elephant in the room today.

This blog post is not intended to recite a litany of the ills that beset Indian society. Rather, I will focus on only one that is perhaps derived from some or all of the above.

Simply put, we are a mean people. We drive past Dharavi in our air conditioned cars and turn up our noses at the whiff of fecal matter that manages to make it past the filtration system. Why doesn't the administration clear these slums for heaven's sake? Why do we pay taxes? The govt just does not do anything!

The uncomfortable truth is really very simple. If we are only willing to pay a plumber Rs 800 per day or even less in the smaller towns, he will earn around Rs 16,000 or so per month. So will a driver or a blue collar worker in a factory. On that, he has to rent a little kholi, commute, eat, provide for clothes and education for his family and hope that he does not fall ill as if he does he is not likely to able to afford decent medical care. Perhaps the family may earn a little more if his wife works in one or more of our households as a maid. Our 'low costs of labour' are like a millstone round our necks. They condemn our working classes to a life of penury amidst filth, disease and no prospects of growth. Can we seriously question why we have slums? They are the places where we condemn those who work for us to live.

We deserve our slums.


Read my nostalgic collection of short stories set in Mussoorie in the 1960s. Amazon is delivering the Kindle Edition these days. Stay safe.  Click to buy