Based on my earlier blog, I had developed a projection for Covid 19 progress in India. There have been four presentations so far on 24.05.20 with updates on 8.06.20 21.06.20 and 6.07.20
Links to the slides are given below. I would welcome your views.
https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-240520
https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-1-80620
https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-2-210620
The latest update was presented on 6.07.20. Key Highlights were:
Directions
• Increased testing is leading to a larger discovery of cases. However as discussed earlier this has little bearing on the progression of the pandemic.
• Based on current trends, we can expect a decline in deaths per day to start around the 15 – 20th of July when the cumulative deaths stand at 22,000 – 23,000. The date is in line with our initial estimates, but the death toll is significantly less. The major risk is that the rural hinterland will see an explosion of cases after some time. This view has been expressed by Dr Ashish Jha of Harvard.
Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com with any comments or questions
The link to the slides is given below:
https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-3-60720
Links to the slides are given below. I would welcome your views.
https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-240520
https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-1-80620
https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-2-210620
The latest update was presented on 6.07.20. Key Highlights were:
Directions
• The last two weeks have seen a general flattening of the death curve. The worst affected state, Maharashtra, continues to adjust previous period deaths leading to some softness in the figures. Hopefully, we will not see another anomaly.
• The return of migrant workers to their home states have still not led to a spurt in deaths in UP and Bihar though the trends are going up.• Increased testing is leading to a larger discovery of cases. However as discussed earlier this has little bearing on the progression of the pandemic.
• Based on current trends, we can expect a decline in deaths per day to start around the 15 – 20th of July when the cumulative deaths stand at 22,000 – 23,000. The date is in line with our initial estimates, but the death toll is significantly less. The major risk is that the rural hinterland will see an explosion of cases after some time. This view has been expressed by Dr Ashish Jha of Harvard.
Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com with any comments or questions
The link to the slides is given below:
https://www.slideshare.net/divyaroop/covid-19-stats-in-india-update-3-60720
