The Demonisation of Cash

The Indian Government, either under the influence of homespun economists or perhaps marijuana is attempting the most radical economic transformation in the history of India. The elephant is being made to dance upon a thimble.

Enough has been said both for and against the scheme by far more erudite thinkers than this blogger. The purpose of this blog is to speculate on the far reaching changes in people's psyche that may come about as a result of this experiment. To clarify, 'people' in this blog are not the fat cats, multi billionaires or even the upper middle class. My concern is for the much reviled Aam Aadmi.

1. People's attitude towards cash will change dramatically. So far it was a friend, someone (or something) that you needed for your daily life. It was the most needed when you were sick or for joyous occasions like your daughter's wedding. Indian housewives squirreled away part of their household budgets every month to save for a rainy day. Now a lot of people will view cash with some trepidation. It might become worthless paper at any time. Some overzealous bureaucrats are already talking of periodic demonitisation almost like an enema that a constipated person needs to cleanse his colon. What is the consequence of this change in attitude? Will it foster a greater propensity to spend? Will it bring down India's famed savings rate - one of the highest in the world? Will it fuel movement towards more faithful friends - property or gold? Being bitten by a faithful dog is not a pleasant experience. India is collectively going through that experience.
   
2. After the incredible exercise of opening millions of new 'Jan Dhan' bank accounts, the Aam Aadmi is suddenly faced with the bewildering feeling that he cannot withdraw his own money! In that case will he not wonder whether the money was his in the first place or whether the State has first right to it. In the old days in some parts of rural India, Brahmins or Kshatriyas had the first right over a lower caste women on her wedding night. In the same way, if you will pardon the dubious analogy, the State seems to have the first right over your hard earned money and can regulate how you can access it and eventually dictate how you can spend it. Will it result in a decreased faith in the banking system? Will the Aam Aadmi believe in future that his money is secure?
   
3. The whole exercise of demonitisation is being touted as an act of patriotism and nationalistic spirit with the eventual objective of ferreting out black money that is really being held by a few people. This sounds good to start with but is rapidly losing it's sheen as people's patience wears thin in endless lines. As an aside it's fortunate that the Government did this in November. In June there would have been a revolution within a week. It will not take long for the Aam Aadmi to figure out that while he may feel patriotic and nationalistic, none of the 'fat cats' are being impacted. There is not a single case of a rich person being arrested for possessing black money. In the end even if the exercise works, how will the Aam Aadmi be impacted? Will prices come down? Will bribe taking end? Will counterfeiting end? Will he stop being harassed by constables demanding hafta? The victory, at best, will be an intellectual one. In real terms there is nothing for the common man to hang onto. Will this result is an unwillingness to participate in further social experimentation? Will he lose faith in democratic norms and a leadership that pushes him into impossible situations?
   

Success or failure of such extreme economic experiments may be measurable in monetary terms. The psychological and social impact will be much more far reaching. I really wonder whether the Government has thought through such issues before jumping into implementation of such a complex scheme.

Blood and Iron

“In September 1862, when the Prussian Landtag was refusing to approve an increase in military spending desired by King Wilhelm I, the king appointed Bismarck as Minister President and Foreign Minister. A few days later, Bismarck appeared before the Landtag's Budget Committee and stressed the need for military preparedness. He concluded his speech with the following statement: [1] "The position of Prussia in Germany will not be determined by its liberalism but by its power [...] Prussia must concentrate its strength and hold it for the favourable moment, which has already come and gone several times. Since the treaties of Vienna, our frontiers have been ill-designed for a healthy body politic. Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great questions of the day be decided—that was the great mistake of 1848 and 1849—but by iron and blood (Eisen und Blut)." This phrase was popularized as the more euphonious Blut und Eisen ("Blood and Iron"), and became symbolic of Bismarckian Machtpolitik ("Power politics")” – Wikipedia

Ever since independence, India has generally been thought of as a ‘soft state’. The precise meaning of the phrase may be elusive but it carries with it connotations of pacifism and compromise. The well-known Hindi song symbolises this feeling:

दे दी हमें आज़ादी बिना खडग  बिना ढाल

साबरमती के संत तूने कर दिया कमल

Pandit Nehru, inspite of his legendary temper was essentially a pacifist (some would say pusillanimous) when it came to affairs of state especially international diplomacy. His string of errors – Taking the Kashmir dispute to the UN instead of pushing the Pakistani invaders out in 1947, the craven capitulation on the Indus waters treaty, Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai etc are too well known to bear repetition here. Having said that, they set the tone for India’s foreign policy for many years to come. Indira Gandhi displayed remarkable fortitude when it came to the liberation of Bangladesh though some may say that it was more due to the courage and temperament of Sam Manekshaw and his army that Pakistan was vanquished in 3 weeks. After that, the sad debacle of returning 90,000 POWs without extracting anything in return was another nail in the coffin with respect to our fraught relations with Pakistan. Even since then talks and talks about talks, Aman ki Aasha and other such frivolity has dominated the discourse with our fractious neighbour.  We have amply lived up to our pacifist and timid reputation over the last 70 years.

There are unmistakable signs that we are now headed into another era – perhaps best described by Bismarck as the era of ‘Blood and Iron’. There are 6 main indications of this:

1.    Deification of the Armed Forces
The armed forces in India have played a vital role in protecting the country. However, it has at all times been a role subservient to the civilian and political dispensation. Further the military has refrained from playing a part in civilian administration unlike in many other countries in our neighbourhood. Overall the military has played a sterling role in our society and has earned the well-deserved respect of all of us. However, what is happening now is deification. It is considered unpatriotic to question any decision taken by the armed forces or to suggest even remotely that there could be weaknesses, inefficiency or corruption within the ranks.

2.    Centralisation of Leadership
Centralisation is taking place at two levels. In the first instance the central government is clearly gaining power. Non BJP states are feeling the heat. The AAP, in particular, who have been vocal and personal in their criticism of the central government have been systematically hounded by a tame LG. The ‘Mahagathbandhan’ in Bihar as well as the SP in UP has also felt the heat. ‘Co-operative Federalism’ exists only in name. The second way is centralisation within the BJP. The PM and Amit Shah really call all the shots. The others are party loyalists who toe the leaders’ line. Centralisation is not necessarily a bad thing. It makes for speed of decision making and strong implementation. The main issue is lack of diversity and dissent.

3.    Weakening of the Judiciary
It is interesting to see how the judiciary is being openly challenged these days by either very rich and powerful bodies or by the political establishment. There are several examples of this:

a.    Karnataka is in open defiance of the Supreme Court on the Cauvery waters issue. In fact, the Court has been reduced to negotiation and virtually pleading with the state to release water as per its direction.

b.    The BCCI is also in open defiance of the Supreme Court’s diktat via the Lodha committee to implement much needed reforms.

c.     The appointment of judges via the collegium approach has been questioned by the Government and has been going back and forth ever since.

4.    Polarisation of the Media
It was quite clear in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 that the BJP and its allies would win by a handsome margin. This has led to a sharp polarisation amongst the media. Many journalists saw which way their bread was buttered and proceeded to ally themselves closely with the ruling administration. This group has acquired the status of the ‘storm troopers’ of the Government. They are more loyal than the king and browbeat and bulldoze those that do not subscribe to their views. The others have been branded as ‘presstitutes’ and it has almost become a traitorous act to subscribe to their views.

Similarly, the social media space has also got overrun with self-righteous trolls who react violently to the slightest hint of anti-establishment activity.

It has been said that the space for dissent is shrinking and while it is not possible to quantify such things it does appear that attitudes have hardened and the nature of the discourse has become more vicious.

5.    Majoritarianism
Terms like ‘sickular’ ‘aaptards’ ‘presstitutes’ and so on have found their way into normal social discussions. ‘Pandering to the minorities’ is another theme that is common to this discourse. The latter seems to indicate that good Muslims are those who can recite the Vedas, take part in Hindu rituals, mind their own business and are preferably vegetarian. It’s another matter that actors like Nawazuudin Siddiqui are prevented from acting in the Ramlila. ‘Go to Pakistan’ is another war cry of these energetic brethren.  Deciding what you can eat, controlling women and other such medieval practices are gaining ground. The irony that the Taliban practices similar restrictions would be totally lost on this crowd.

6.    Muscular Foreign Policy
The good thing is that PM Modi essentially runs foreign affairs on his own. He has taken the onus on himself to create space with neighbouring countries and with the USA and to a certain extent with China and it has paid dividends. The muscularity was on display with the ‘surgical strikes’ conducted recently by the armed forces. The wide ranging, perfectly executed operation has sent shock waves down the spines of Pakistan. It has added an unknown dimension to our foreign policy and one that Pakistan will struggle to deal with. The ongoing isolation that Pakistan faces is also unnerving for them. One does not know exactly what the end point will be with this ‘offensive defence’ strategy propounded by the enigmatic Ajit Doval but it has given Indians something to cheer about. I also suspect that the separatists sitting in Srinagar would also not like to end up on the losing side. There is some evidence that some of them may be reconsidering their open pro Pakistan stance. Certainly youth are turning out in droves for army and police recruitment and some solace can be taken from the ‘rescue’ of an army man when he met an accident by the local people.

What do all of the signs and portents mean? Many people said that the 2014 elections were a watershed, a turning point in India’s history. The Congress party is a shadow of its former self and the multifarious scams and inanity of Rahul Gandhi ensure that it will not be a contender for the foreseeable future. The AAP experiment has been thwarted by the Centre to a large extent in Delhi and they can only hope that they fare better in Punjab and possibly Goa. Bihar is reverting to jungle raj with Lalu calling the shots and bizarre policies like prohibition being implemented arbitrarily. With all this it is becoming increasingly evident that PM Modi’s party (I deliberately do not use the word BJP) is here to stay for quite some time. While elections and the democratic process will continue, we will witness a new phase in Indian polity. It will be a harder, more harsh and unforgiving model. Foreign policy will become increasingly pragmatic and less idealistic. Domestic society will harden its views on ‘the other’ and conformity will be the order of the day. Judges may become more pliable and the army more assertive. We will see significant material progress and profit will no longer be a bad word. Those who protest against the ‘saffronisation’ of history will be quelled and a new discourse will emerge with a muscular Hinduism at its core. Old Nehruvian socialist imperatives will be lost in a surge of eager young Indians wanting to find their place in the sun.

The sun has finally set on the British Empire and old India. We are hurtling to a brave new world which will hopefully be far better than the one we have left behind.
   

AAP - What Next?

The recent bye elections for the Delhi MCD have thrown up some interesting results. There was a section of AAP supporters including me who felt that the AAP would sweep the polls i.e. they would land up with 8 - 10 seats. This has not happened. What are the implications of this and what does it mean for the AAP going forward?

1. The BJP has not learnt from its debacle in the assembly elections. There is no clear leader even today for Delhi and the same tired voices continue to prevail. The new crop as typified by Nupur Sharma or Shazia Ilmi are frankly not worthy of consideration. This lacunae will cost the BJP dearly going forward and they need to correct it immediately. The larger question whether BJP policies at a national level are being rejected by the electorate in general is not so germane to this election.
2. The most surprising and praiseworthy result is from the Congress. Their understated leader, Ajay Maken, has obviously been doing good work in Delhi and his efforts are being appreciated.  The voter does recognize sincerity and here is a clear example of what works. 

Coming now to the AAP. The assembly election saw a huge swing away from the Congress. The BJP actually lost very little of its vote share and the entire swing went to the AAP. This resulted in a massive landslide in their favour. Clearly the swing was of a temporary nature and now all parties have to fight for their rightful share of the votes. The BJP's power base appears to have dwindled slightly but they are still a formidable force at the MCD level. If they can get their leadership and cadre in order they will present a major challenge in 2017 when the full elections come up. The Congress is clawing its way back. At a national level they are hamstrung by a weak central leadership but clearly the need for a left of center, secular party is showing up in several ways in many states. In my opinion the AAP has made three errors of judgement in the recent past that have contributed to its below expectation showing in the bye elections:

1. There was a shrewd campaign to cast aspersions on Modi especially on his degree issue. It is important to realise that such a campaign is only a tactical one as it positions Kejriwal in a false position of equivalence to Modi. It muddies the waters and keeps the pot boiling. However it actually achieves nothing since nobody really cares whether Modi is a graduate or not. The problem with the AAP is that they do not know when to stop. Such a campaign starts grating on your ears after some time. Rather like the Airtel 4G ad which the company cleverly converted to an advantage.
2. The first round of odd-even created significant awareness about the whole issue of air pollution and there was a lot of good will created amongst all sections of the public including doubters like Suhel Seth and Tavleen Singh. Unfortunately the second round has not had a similarly positive impact. The effect of road rationing on air pollution was anyway doubtful and this time the public was just a little fed up. Clearly the war on pollution needs to progress to other areas.
3. The assembly elections were fought by the AAP in enormous detail with agendas and action plans for each constituency. I get the feeling that this time around the effort may have slackened a bit both in terms of detailing of plans and the choice of candidates. 

In all of the above examples there appears to be a lack of strategic thinking in the AAP. They are good at tactics but now that they are in power they need to have a longer term view. They are doing excellent work on the ground. In the key areas of power, water and health care there has been a distinct improvement in Delhi. Not all the credit can be given to them but they have played a significant part in managing things at a ground level.

Going forward the AAP needs to consolidate its governance in Delhi. High decibel advertising as discussed above is not a substitute for solid work. They need to focus back on the basics (Health Care, Women's Safety, Power, Water, Pollution) and Kejriwal needs to operate as a hard taskmaster to his party men. Secondly since they have decided to go for assembly polls in Punjab, they must win this if they are to demonstrate that they can govern a larger and more crucial state than Delhi. There are rumours already that Anandiben Patel is being shifted to Punjab as Governor in anticipation of an AAP win. This looks like Ajeeb Jung II in the making and the AAP needs to be ready for it.

Confusion Confounded

After a long time I felt strongly enough about a branding issue to actually write about it. I'm going to take two examples of iconic brands who seem to have got it all wrong - Taj Hotels and Jet Airways.

Let's take Jet Airways first. After its launch the airline was well positioned as a high quality, full service airline. Those of us who were not tempted by the short red skirts and general razzmatazz of Kingfisher were quite happy to fly Jet. On their international routes their service was truly world class. They also had a brilliant frequent flyer programme and all in all the airline looked like a world beater. Problems started after the launch of low cost airlines especially Indigo. All of a sudden Jet no longer looked so attractive. The 'always on time' proposition of Indigo coupled with 'no frills' flying was an instant hit with consumers and Jet began to look tired.

Their responses were bizarre to say the least. Having lent a helping hand to Sahara by buying them out when they were leaking cash copiously, Jet proceeded to rebrand the airline as 'Jet Lite' clearly implying that the airline was part of their B team. Then even more bizarrely, they launched the Teutonic sounding Jet Konnect with the Kon being pronounced as Con rather than Cun. Konnect was another B team for Jet where you had to pay for food and so on.

Consumers were understandably confused or should I say Konfused? Booking was not centralized and you never knew when you would fly Lite or remain Konnected. Coupled with the rise of Indigo, Jet rapidly lost market share and resorted to a number of anti personnel actions that further eroded its Brand Image.

In India, budget airlines do not have a markedly different cost structure than full service airlines. Apart from fuel and personnel the only difference may be in airport charges in places like Delhi who have a separate terminal for budget airlines. In addition, food costs are another factor but they really don't add up to much. In effect, there is no reason why efficiently managed full service airlines should be at a significant coat disadvantage to budget airlines in India. I think Jet Airways has finally realized this. The drop in fuel prices has also helped as margins are more attractive now.

Fortunately, Jet has gone back to its roots. A full service, efficiently managed, modern airline that may be marginally more expensive than Indigo but one that provides in flight meals and has an attractive frequent flyer programme is a good option. Excellent international sector services and the link with Etihad is also helping. Business class is another plus especially on long haul flights. Consistent brand experience helps tremendously in growing brand equity and consequently market share.

It appears, therefore that Jet has found it's way back from the morass it was getting into. Let's now look at another iconic brand that hasn't managed to do so yet and I wonder if they even realize that they are destroying value with their branding strategy. I am referring to Taj Hotels though the lessons may be equally applicable to a lot of other hotel chains.

The Taj Group of Hotels derives its  equity from it's corporate parent, the Tata Group as well as its flagship property in Mumbai. There is a sense of old world charm, class and sophistication. Nothing noveau riche about the Taj! There is also an image of cosmopolitan Indianness. A person who may be a global traveler but is comfortable with his Indian roots. With India poised to take off in the global economy this would appear to be a wonderful place to be in.

Regrettably in their attempt to create sub brands such as Vivanta and Gateway, the Taj group runs the risk of diluting this core equity. Let me give you two examples:

1. The Taj property in Bentota, Sri Lanka dominates the most popular beach in Sri Lanka. The hotel has magnificent views and is laid out in a vast expanse of green area. It was clearly positioned to represent the Taj image in Sri Lanka as a gracious, Indian, cosmopolitan hotelier. Unfortunately the Taj Group has now branded the property as Vivanta. When I visited after a few years I was surprised to discover that local Tuk Tuks and the shops around have completely forgotten about the Taj and instead come up with a faceless Vivanta that does not mean anything.
2. The most upscale Taj restaurant in Bangalore is the Karavalli, a coastal food restaurant rated at #3 on Trip Advisor is located, astonishingly, in the Gateway Hotel that is the lowest segment of Taj Hotels in Bangalore. It is not in the West End or the Residency (referred to as Vivanta in the new avatar) Gateway is not even referred to as a Taj Hotel!

There are many examples of this sort of anomaly. The Taj Group of hotels has a magnificent heritage both from their parent group as well as from the development of the chain over a 100 years. What is the point in frittering it way across meaningless hotel brands that nobody identifies with?

Creating a powerful, emotive and meaningful brand like Taj hotels is very difficult and praiseworthy. It is far better to carry the Taj branding right up front rather than let it wither away. Everyone recognizes that hotels in different locations, catering to different customers etc will have different amenities different pricing and even a different ambiance. Not calling them Taj is to orphan them in a way which the group should not do in my opinion.

So there it is, one brand that has clawed its way out of the morass that it was getting into and another that does not seem to realize that its destroying value. Hope that changes soon!