Blood and Iron

“In September 1862, when the Prussian Landtag was refusing to approve an increase in military spending desired by King Wilhelm I, the king appointed Bismarck as Minister President and Foreign Minister. A few days later, Bismarck appeared before the Landtag's Budget Committee and stressed the need for military preparedness. He concluded his speech with the following statement: [1] "The position of Prussia in Germany will not be determined by its liberalism but by its power [...] Prussia must concentrate its strength and hold it for the favourable moment, which has already come and gone several times. Since the treaties of Vienna, our frontiers have been ill-designed for a healthy body politic. Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great questions of the day be decided—that was the great mistake of 1848 and 1849—but by iron and blood (Eisen und Blut)." This phrase was popularized as the more euphonious Blut und Eisen ("Blood and Iron"), and became symbolic of Bismarckian Machtpolitik ("Power politics")” – Wikipedia

Ever since independence, India has generally been thought of as a ‘soft state’. The precise meaning of the phrase may be elusive but it carries with it connotations of pacifism and compromise. The well-known Hindi song symbolises this feeling:

दे दी हमें आज़ादी बिना खडग  बिना ढाल

साबरमती के संत तूने कर दिया कमल

Pandit Nehru, inspite of his legendary temper was essentially a pacifist (some would say pusillanimous) when it came to affairs of state especially international diplomacy. His string of errors – Taking the Kashmir dispute to the UN instead of pushing the Pakistani invaders out in 1947, the craven capitulation on the Indus waters treaty, Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai etc are too well known to bear repetition here. Having said that, they set the tone for India’s foreign policy for many years to come. Indira Gandhi displayed remarkable fortitude when it came to the liberation of Bangladesh though some may say that it was more due to the courage and temperament of Sam Manekshaw and his army that Pakistan was vanquished in 3 weeks. After that, the sad debacle of returning 90,000 POWs without extracting anything in return was another nail in the coffin with respect to our fraught relations with Pakistan. Even since then talks and talks about talks, Aman ki Aasha and other such frivolity has dominated the discourse with our fractious neighbour.  We have amply lived up to our pacifist and timid reputation over the last 70 years.

There are unmistakable signs that we are now headed into another era – perhaps best described by Bismarck as the era of ‘Blood and Iron’. There are 6 main indications of this:

1.    Deification of the Armed Forces
The armed forces in India have played a vital role in protecting the country. However, it has at all times been a role subservient to the civilian and political dispensation. Further the military has refrained from playing a part in civilian administration unlike in many other countries in our neighbourhood. Overall the military has played a sterling role in our society and has earned the well-deserved respect of all of us. However, what is happening now is deification. It is considered unpatriotic to question any decision taken by the armed forces or to suggest even remotely that there could be weaknesses, inefficiency or corruption within the ranks.

2.    Centralisation of Leadership
Centralisation is taking place at two levels. In the first instance the central government is clearly gaining power. Non BJP states are feeling the heat. The AAP, in particular, who have been vocal and personal in their criticism of the central government have been systematically hounded by a tame LG. The ‘Mahagathbandhan’ in Bihar as well as the SP in UP has also felt the heat. ‘Co-operative Federalism’ exists only in name. The second way is centralisation within the BJP. The PM and Amit Shah really call all the shots. The others are party loyalists who toe the leaders’ line. Centralisation is not necessarily a bad thing. It makes for speed of decision making and strong implementation. The main issue is lack of diversity and dissent.

3.    Weakening of the Judiciary
It is interesting to see how the judiciary is being openly challenged these days by either very rich and powerful bodies or by the political establishment. There are several examples of this:

a.    Karnataka is in open defiance of the Supreme Court on the Cauvery waters issue. In fact, the Court has been reduced to negotiation and virtually pleading with the state to release water as per its direction.

b.    The BCCI is also in open defiance of the Supreme Court’s diktat via the Lodha committee to implement much needed reforms.

c.     The appointment of judges via the collegium approach has been questioned by the Government and has been going back and forth ever since.

4.    Polarisation of the Media
It was quite clear in the run up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 that the BJP and its allies would win by a handsome margin. This has led to a sharp polarisation amongst the media. Many journalists saw which way their bread was buttered and proceeded to ally themselves closely with the ruling administration. This group has acquired the status of the ‘storm troopers’ of the Government. They are more loyal than the king and browbeat and bulldoze those that do not subscribe to their views. The others have been branded as ‘presstitutes’ and it has almost become a traitorous act to subscribe to their views.

Similarly, the social media space has also got overrun with self-righteous trolls who react violently to the slightest hint of anti-establishment activity.

It has been said that the space for dissent is shrinking and while it is not possible to quantify such things it does appear that attitudes have hardened and the nature of the discourse has become more vicious.

5.    Majoritarianism
Terms like ‘sickular’ ‘aaptards’ ‘presstitutes’ and so on have found their way into normal social discussions. ‘Pandering to the minorities’ is another theme that is common to this discourse. The latter seems to indicate that good Muslims are those who can recite the Vedas, take part in Hindu rituals, mind their own business and are preferably vegetarian. It’s another matter that actors like Nawazuudin Siddiqui are prevented from acting in the Ramlila. ‘Go to Pakistan’ is another war cry of these energetic brethren.  Deciding what you can eat, controlling women and other such medieval practices are gaining ground. The irony that the Taliban practices similar restrictions would be totally lost on this crowd.

6.    Muscular Foreign Policy
The good thing is that PM Modi essentially runs foreign affairs on his own. He has taken the onus on himself to create space with neighbouring countries and with the USA and to a certain extent with China and it has paid dividends. The muscularity was on display with the ‘surgical strikes’ conducted recently by the armed forces. The wide ranging, perfectly executed operation has sent shock waves down the spines of Pakistan. It has added an unknown dimension to our foreign policy and one that Pakistan will struggle to deal with. The ongoing isolation that Pakistan faces is also unnerving for them. One does not know exactly what the end point will be with this ‘offensive defence’ strategy propounded by the enigmatic Ajit Doval but it has given Indians something to cheer about. I also suspect that the separatists sitting in Srinagar would also not like to end up on the losing side. There is some evidence that some of them may be reconsidering their open pro Pakistan stance. Certainly youth are turning out in droves for army and police recruitment and some solace can be taken from the ‘rescue’ of an army man when he met an accident by the local people.

What do all of the signs and portents mean? Many people said that the 2014 elections were a watershed, a turning point in India’s history. The Congress party is a shadow of its former self and the multifarious scams and inanity of Rahul Gandhi ensure that it will not be a contender for the foreseeable future. The AAP experiment has been thwarted by the Centre to a large extent in Delhi and they can only hope that they fare better in Punjab and possibly Goa. Bihar is reverting to jungle raj with Lalu calling the shots and bizarre policies like prohibition being implemented arbitrarily. With all this it is becoming increasingly evident that PM Modi’s party (I deliberately do not use the word BJP) is here to stay for quite some time. While elections and the democratic process will continue, we will witness a new phase in Indian polity. It will be a harder, more harsh and unforgiving model. Foreign policy will become increasingly pragmatic and less idealistic. Domestic society will harden its views on ‘the other’ and conformity will be the order of the day. Judges may become more pliable and the army more assertive. We will see significant material progress and profit will no longer be a bad word. Those who protest against the ‘saffronisation’ of history will be quelled and a new discourse will emerge with a muscular Hinduism at its core. Old Nehruvian socialist imperatives will be lost in a surge of eager young Indians wanting to find their place in the sun.

The sun has finally set on the British Empire and old India. We are hurtling to a brave new world which will hopefully be far better than the one we have left behind.