Wednesday, January 9, 2013

An Exercise in Futility

India has tried engaging with Pakistan in various ways. Inspite of 4 bloody wars we have continuously tried to engage with our fractious neighbour. There has been 'Track 2' diplomacy, people to people contacts, cricket - where we have graciously lost as generous hosts recently, Aman ki Asha and a host of other initiatives other than the ones undertaken through official diplomatic channels.

In return we have received a cacophany of muddled signals. From well meaning civil society activists who try to equate Islamic terror with Hindutva to hard line Talibanists who argue for an intensification of aggression leading to a dismemberment of India. In between there is an ineffectual political leadership and a menacing army.

A section of people still believe that there is much in common between India and Pakistan. By and large such people are over 80 years old and have some links with undivided Punjab. Frankly, they are in a dwindling minority now. The fact is that even before partition there was very little in common between the average resident of what is now Pakistan and anyone outside North India. In particular, the commonality was really restricted to Punjab. In the intervening 65 years the neighbours have grown steadily apart. Increasing fundamentalism, Arabization and basic differences in civic society have ensured that Pakistan has taken a divergent path from India.

India too has changed especially in the last two decades. We are a young country that has little recollection of a joint heritage. Our dreams and aspirations are wedded to a globalised world and we are more linked with the Western Democracies than with the Islamic Middle East. Increasing prosperity and the lifting of millions out of poverty has created a large middle class whose main exposure to Pakistan is the periodic horror unleashed by its cohorts on innocent Indians such as in the Mumbai attacks.

So why do we need to engage with Pakistan? The fact is that there are no clear answers. Any relationship should have a mutual benefit for it to prosper. In this case it is truly hard to think of any benefit that India can get with a deeper engagement. It has often been said that one does not know whom to engage with in Pakistan. If you deal with the elected Government you have the shadow of the Army looming large over the process. Sometimes we are told that the Army is now is now on board with the engagement and then a horrific incident happens such as the beheading and mutilation of two of our armymen. Secondly, dialogue should show some progress or improvement for it proceed. With Pakistan it has always been a case of one step forward and two steps back and it has been going on for 65 years!

Perhaps there could be an economic reason for engagement. Pakistan may provide a market for Indian manufacturers and vice versa. However such a situation can only happen when there is a significant improvement in the relationship. The tail cannot wag the dog.

It may be better to simply ignore Pakistan. Active attempts to take the dialogue further are clearly not working. Perhaps the time has come to let them manage their affairs in whatever way they want and just put all engagement into a deep freeze.

2 comments:

  1. Generally agree with the sentiment, but I don't think Pakistan will allow India to ignore it as long as Kashmir and Afghanistan remain unsettled. They will pick a fight (fences are infeasible) and we have to react, with diplomacy or otherwise. I don't think India has a choice but to engage.

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  2. Nikhil - you may be right. However what I am suggesting is that we put an end to active engagement - peace talks, cricket, the Visa regime and so forth. Make people to people contacts difficult and try to ignore provocation to the extent possible. Also reduce diplomatic contacts - perhaps shut down consulates other than Islamabad. Between active diplomacy and war there is a large space. We need to explore other ways of reacting. There is no point in pretending that they are long lost brothers.

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