As a keen supporter of the Aam Aadmi Party their debacle in the Lok Sabha polls and the subsequent internal meltdown has been heartbreaking. However, the raison de etre for the AAP to exist in the first place is still around. The euphoria of the BJP's victory has silenced some of the cacophony that was building up during the twilight days of the UPA against corruption and institutionalized poor governance. However as the BJP will find out in the next few weeks and months a behemoth is not so easy to turn around and control. Rapes in UP, power outages in Delhi and a media baying for your blood can unnerve even the strongest amongst us.
In my view the AAP made two crucial mistakes. One, that they gave up the state government in Delhi too easily. Many of us, including me, thought that their resignation would garner more support for them. It did indeed do so in the short term but the rise of the BJP blew them out of the water. They came to be seen as churlish and immature as they clamored against the Lt. Governor and the courts. Two, the decision to contest so many Lok Sabha seats was bizarre. The AAP leadership (and I suspect it was the persona of Arvind Kejriwal) got carried away by the myth of their own invulnerability. The role of giant killer that led Kejriwal to contest the Varanasi seat compounded the problem as it sucked up precious resources from the rest of the election. Subsequently the bickering between Shazia Ilmi, Yogendra Yadav and Manish Sisodia has added to their woes. Kejriwal's imprisonment due to his refusal to put up bail and his subsequent capitulation has made him a figure of fun. Lately, their petulance against the BJP with respect to the power crisis in Delhi is seen as counterproductive and not adding value in a serious crisis.
The real question is what next? As I see it, the fledgling party needs to reclaim its roots. As a first step, they need to focus back on Delhi in a constructive way. The few Lok Sabha members that they have can continue to perform their duties but cannot be the focus of the party at this stage. Under no circumstances should they accept support from the Congress to form a Government in Delhi - that would be a complete disaster. They have to find new ways and issues to connect with Delhi residents in the run up to fresh elections. Corruption is old hat. Most people believe, however unrealistically, that Mr. Modi will cleanse the body politic by waving a magic wand. Anyone who rails against this oversimplification will be disregarded and ridiculed. Poor governance is also a non-issue now. So what should the AAP be doing and how should they craft their strategy? Their main strength was a genuine simplicity, sincerity and willingness to connect with real people at a grass root level. To solve real life problems for real people. They are not good at a broad statesman like speeches that Mr. Modi is good at or even massive, dreamlike schemes like Mr. Rahul Gandhi. For the AAP to succeed and build back its credibility they need to focus on Mohalla issues that impact the common man: cleanliness, drains, roads, reliable water and electricity, safety and security of honest, simple folk. This is what gave them their mandate and it is this and only this that can win them the people's approbation again.
Check out my book 'Journey to the Hills and other Stories' for a dose of midsummer nostalgia....
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In my view the AAP made two crucial mistakes. One, that they gave up the state government in Delhi too easily. Many of us, including me, thought that their resignation would garner more support for them. It did indeed do so in the short term but the rise of the BJP blew them out of the water. They came to be seen as churlish and immature as they clamored against the Lt. Governor and the courts. Two, the decision to contest so many Lok Sabha seats was bizarre. The AAP leadership (and I suspect it was the persona of Arvind Kejriwal) got carried away by the myth of their own invulnerability. The role of giant killer that led Kejriwal to contest the Varanasi seat compounded the problem as it sucked up precious resources from the rest of the election. Subsequently the bickering between Shazia Ilmi, Yogendra Yadav and Manish Sisodia has added to their woes. Kejriwal's imprisonment due to his refusal to put up bail and his subsequent capitulation has made him a figure of fun. Lately, their petulance against the BJP with respect to the power crisis in Delhi is seen as counterproductive and not adding value in a serious crisis.
The real question is what next? As I see it, the fledgling party needs to reclaim its roots. As a first step, they need to focus back on Delhi in a constructive way. The few Lok Sabha members that they have can continue to perform their duties but cannot be the focus of the party at this stage. Under no circumstances should they accept support from the Congress to form a Government in Delhi - that would be a complete disaster. They have to find new ways and issues to connect with Delhi residents in the run up to fresh elections. Corruption is old hat. Most people believe, however unrealistically, that Mr. Modi will cleanse the body politic by waving a magic wand. Anyone who rails against this oversimplification will be disregarded and ridiculed. Poor governance is also a non-issue now. So what should the AAP be doing and how should they craft their strategy? Their main strength was a genuine simplicity, sincerity and willingness to connect with real people at a grass root level. To solve real life problems for real people. They are not good at a broad statesman like speeches that Mr. Modi is good at or even massive, dreamlike schemes like Mr. Rahul Gandhi. For the AAP to succeed and build back its credibility they need to focus on Mohalla issues that impact the common man: cleanliness, drains, roads, reliable water and electricity, safety and security of honest, simple folk. This is what gave them their mandate and it is this and only this that can win them the people's approbation again.
Check out my book 'Journey to the Hills and other Stories' for a dose of midsummer nostalgia....
Amazon Facebook
Good points, Debu. Will send you an email with a more in-depth analysis of what needs to be done. It emerged in a great private seminar we held recently.
ReplyDeleteExcellent. I do believe that the AAP is at the crossroads. If they don't get it right this time they may disintegrate. That would be a real pity.
DeleteHi Kishore, it will be interesting to read your analysis as well. Will you be able to share the same with me at alankar.sawai@gmail.com? Thanks in advance.
DeleteHi Debu,
ReplyDeleteYour blog has described the events that have led to the current crisis in AAP. I feel that the analysis of 'why' and 'how to' of the AAP situation would need to look at some of the following issues:
i) What were the concerns of the aam aadmi during 2010,2011,2012, 2013 and pre-election 2014? In the dynamic situation that one witnessed over this period, how did these concerns change and why?
ii) Given that the NaMo led BJP made a clean sweep of Delhi in 2014 elections, the change phenomenon cannot be doubted- one has to analyse and understand them. Perhaps, Kejri and AAP contributed to those changes also by their actual behaviors
iii) Democracy enables a political party to make promises and gives them an opportunity to deliver. NaMo led BJP will be given time by the electorate to deliver. This is the breathing time that Kejri and AAP should use to introspect. Any agitational approach they adopt will only lead to further lowering of their goodwill, especially as they spurned the opportunity that was given to them to make a difference in the aam aadmi lives in Delhi.
iv) The aam aadmi will continue to demand an improvement in their quality of life. The genie has been let loose. Political parties cannot hide behind caste, religion, nature and other issues to explain non-performance. The days of the fatalistic, karmic Hindu are over. Kejri and AAP have to uncover those issues of quality of life that will appeal to the aam aadmi and develop detailed, well thought thorough blueprints. The time to talk, reveal or disclose them will come, sooner or later. They will have to be patient and alert. Then only can the travails of the aam aadmi be addressed.
Best wishes,
Sanjay Kumar
Totally agree Sanjay. The AAP has to rediscover what issues are of relevance to the Aam Aadmi today (not what they were yesterday). They also need to focus back on Delhi. National aspirations will have to take a back seat. Finally, they need to really deliver on the ground. Promises and slogans will not work any more.
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