Thursday, January 29, 2015

Why the AAP should win in Delhi

It is truly commendable that in the face of the superbly orchestrated BJP juggernaut there is still an island of resistance in Delhi. Nothing exemplifies the divide between India and Bharat or between the fat cats and the common man more than the protagonists in the Delhi assembly elections. The AAP has come a long way since the euphoric days of the last Delhi poll. They were then lionised by the English media and the twitterati and even the middle class felt that they were knights in shining armour who had come to save them from the awful mess that the Congress had created. What bound them all together was a unipolar rejection of corruption as the most corrosive force in Indian politics. Unfortunately, that singular thought was the only cement that kept the AAP together. On all other issues and methods there was a sharp divergence between the middle class supporters of the AAP and the actual Aam Aadmi. The former were repelled by the tactics that the AAP employed. Sleeping on the pavement in freezing rain did not appeal to their delicate sensibilities and neither did the anarchist statements that Kejriwal was fond of issuing at regular intervals.

To understand the deep and fundamental divide between these two constituents of AAP supporters, past and present is to understand the realities that the poor of India face on a daily basis. Mayawati captures the angst of poor and dispossessed Indians who rebel against an oppressive religion and an establishment that seems to be geared only for exploitation of the poorest of the poor. Indians, specifically Hindus, need to ask themselves why there has been such large scale conversions to Islam and Christianity over the years. The fact is that Hinduism is a discriminatory religion. Caste is the most pernicious of all methods invented by man to divide and rule the ones who don't belong. In a similar vein and in fact derived from the influences of religion, the divide between India (the land of the haves) and Bharat (the land of the have nots) runs deep and strong. It is this divide that is being played out in the Delhi elections. The BJP and the Congress are essentially two sides of the same coin. The advantage that the former has is of decisive, strong and determined leadership at the top. Otherwise their chosen paths and end objectives are remarkably similar. It is a telling point that the political class closed ranks against the Lok Pal bill. Nobody really wanted crony capitalism, nepotism and corruption to actually be curbed. It only makes for good election speeches.

In the face of all this, Kejriwal and his band of determined, albeit motley men and women truly stand out. The common man in Delhi is really convinced that they are the only party that actually stands for them. Lofty promises, spectacular parades, good 'governance' at the national level and so and so forth make very little difference to the Aam Aadmi. He is concerned about Mohalla affairs, corruption at the transactional level, rising costs of daily necessities and utilities, safety of women, law and order and similar matters. The sad fact is that the neither of the national parties are capable or willing to address these issues at the grass roots level. In terms of numbers the real Aam Aadmi (blue collar workers, small businessmen, junior staff employed by Private Sector or Government) are solidly behind the AAP. With the decline in the Congress, the Muslim voter is also looking favourably at the AAP. It is only the English press and the middle and upper classes who have turned against them. While this segment is vocal and articulate, it forms a small fraction of Delhi. Ultimately Bharat is far bigger than India. Every time the English press attacks the AAP, the party gains as the underdog who has bravely fought a good fight. It would not be prudent to forecast the results of the Delhi elections but in a microcosm it is a fight for the underdog, a fight for the soul of India.

The AAP has already changed the tenor of public discourse in India. It would be great if they could form a stable government in Delhi and demonstrate how they could improve the lot of the common people of this great city. 

5 comments:

  1. Opinion polls favouring AAP - this is a press article that appeared on 29.01.15
    Though the ABP-Nielsen opinion poll in November last year gave BJP a clear majority estimating that the party would win 46 seats out of 70 in the upcoming assembly elections, a lot seems to have changed since then. A more recent pre-poll survey, conducted by Hindustan Times and C Fore Survey revealed that AAP may have caught up in the rat race. According to the survey, AAP’s vote share has gone up by 9 percent from 24.9 percent in the 2013 assembly elections, the party is estimated to get 33.9 percent in the upcoming one.
    Meanwhile, the BJP has only managed to raise their vote share by 5 percent bringing them from 33 percent in 2013 to 38 percent in 2015. Though, it may still be higher than AAP’s vote share, but a lot could change in the next week or so.
    The interesting aspect to take into account is that in both the opinion polls, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has stood out to be the city’s favourite among all chief minister candidates. In the ABP-Nielsen opinion poll, 39 percent of Delhi’s electorate wanted AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal as the next chief minister, highest amongst his competitors. Similarly, the C Fore Survey also revealed that 43 percent of Delhiites want Kejriwal as their next CM, while 39 percent want Bedi and 12 percent want the Congress candidate Ajay Maken.

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  2. Corruption in public and private dealings in India at all levels is so pervasive, it has become accepted as a way of life. Common man, who generally belongs to poor communities in India, has little opportunity to prosper keeping pace with the middle class progress. Though Modi Govt. seems to be on the right trajectory for bringing economic development in India, if corruption is not dealt with at all levels, the gap between the rich and poor will continue to widen. This will not bode well for India’s future, continued national unity and stability. I agree that AAP was the only party that had the courage to bring about the issue of corruption being the foremost major issue in India and has to be dealt with urgently. I believe in their thesis, AAP felt in rooting out the main thorn speedily and effectively and then good honest people in India, even proverbial ‘aam aadmi’, will join Indian politics leadership. Good commonsense from dedicated and honest leadership will allow to carve out the right path forward for India’s ‘all inclusive’ progress. Thus this will bring India out of the shackles of corruption and allow her to reach its potential on the world scene and once again India will lead the world.

    The issues that common man faces, as mentioned in the blog post are: pervasive corruption, poverty, crime, especially crime against women. As also noted in the blog post, this is the reason the poor have been the main supporters of AAP. Unfortunately in India’s political system, all the high sounding well established political parties, without exception, brushed away the corruption being the main hurdle for India's progress. Media in India, which often seems to be paid news when it comes to political reporting, also tried and successfully destroyed AAP's credibility. AAP's inexperience with communications with media and in dealing with avalanche of attacks by the established corrupt political system hurt their own credibility.

    It is refreshing to see that AAP still has some credibility with the poor of India in Delhi area based on brief 49 day rule by AAP, and poor is still the majority of population in the area. This is apparent from BJPs panicked move to woo AAP defectors to put up a fight with AAP. Apparently BJP did not have confidence that they will be able to deny AAP CM candidate with their own local BJP leadership.

    Political reporting in Media is appears to be greatly influenced (paid) by established parties like Congress and BJP and a few other local parties. Congress is so badly beaten up by BJP, it appears they will be willing to support AAP’s CM candidate in case AAP and Congress votes together can out number BJP seats after the election. Let us how this plays out.

    For the long haul, I hope that AAP leadership continues to become more mature players in art of politics, continue to learn from their own mistakes and keep moving forward with the goal that the party started with. Irrespective of upcoming results of Delhi Assembly elections, I hope the AAP leadership will not sway from their goal and keep marching forward to revolutionize India’s politics.

    I am not sure why Anna did not support AAP, since AAP’s goal was right in line with what Anna tried to accomplish. The Anna movement seems to have fizzled out, at least at the current time. I hope Anna changes his mind and becomes a moral compass for the nation and supports a party like AAP to achieve the goals of the movement Anna is credited with starting.

    Prabal Roy

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  3. As the election campaigning enters the last lap, the AAP has taken a decisive lead. We can look forward to a corruption free Delhi.

    http://www.hindustantimes.com/newdelhi/aap-takes-lead-over-bjp-in-delhi-kejriwal-most-preferred-cm-choice-ht-survey/article1-1312982.aspx

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